Wimbledon · R16 · Grass · 1 Jul 2013
Kaia Kanepi v Laura Robson
84–79 in points · Kaia Kanepi won
Why it went the way it did
Kaia Kanepi won 1.1 more points than Laura Robson relative to what the serve alone predicted. Laura Robson's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.2, return execution −1.2, serve 2nd execution −0.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Kaia Kanepi | Laura Robson | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | −0.1 | +1.4 | +1.7 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.2 | −4.5 | −4.6 | −0.3 | +2.0 | −1.2 | +0.6 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +0.7 | +1.5 | +2.0 | −0.1 | +1.0 | −5.2 | −4.3 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.9 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.2 | −0.3 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.5 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| All shots | −0.5 | −0.5 | −2.6 | −3.6 | −0.3 | +3.0 | −7.4 | −4.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Kaia Kanepi | Laura Robson | Net, Kaia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.8 | −4.3 | −1.5 | |
| 2 | +2.2 | −0.4 | +2.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Kaia Kanepi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 65% | 13% 33% | 40% 68% |
| 2 | 60% 71% | 8% 33% | 33% 69% |
Set to set +1.07 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Laura Robson serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 86% | 19% 57% | 43% 56% |
| 2 | 38% 86% | 8% 33% | 54% 50% |
Set to set −0.59 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Kaia Kanepi
6.0 points left on the table across 194 shots 3.10 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Laura Robson
6.8 points left on the table across 201 shots 3.38 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.81 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts