Wimbledon · SF · Grass · 5 Jul 2013
Andy Murray v Jerzy Janowicz
133–110 in points · Andy Murray won
Why it went the way it did
Andy Murray won 14.5 more points than Jerzy Janowicz relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jerzy Janowicz's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.9, serve 1st execution −3.6, serve 2nd execution −3.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Andy Murray | Jerzy Janowicz | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | −0.4 | +3.0 | +3.0 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −3.6 | −3.9 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +0.7 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −3.4 | −3.8 |
| Return | +0.3 | −1.4 | −0.3 | −1.5 | −0.6 | +0.5 | −1.0 | −1.1 |
| Forehand | +0.9 | +3.1 | +6.2 | +10.2 | +0.6 | +2.6 | −3.9 | −0.6 |
| Backhand | +0.6 | +0.7 | −0.1 | +1.2 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.8 | −1.5 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −3.8 | −1.1 | −4.8 | +0.2 | −2.0 | +1.2 | −0.7 |
| Net | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −0.9 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +1.2 | +1.9 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −1.0 | +0.6 | −0.4 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +1.5 | +2.6 |
| All shots | +1.8 | −3.2 | +8.8 | +7.5 | +0.4 | +1.3 | −8.8 | −7.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Andy Murray | Jerzy Janowicz | Net, Andy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | |
| 2 | −0.3 | −3.6 | +3.3 | |
| 3 | +5.6 | +1.6 | +4.0 | |
| 4 | +2.0 | −5.1 | +7.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Andy Murray serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24% 75% | – | 76% 73% |
| 2 | 35% 82% | 6% 100% | 58% 67% |
| 3 | 63% 68% | – | 37% 64% |
| 4 | 72% 85% | – | 28% 100% |
Set to set +0.63 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.82 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jerzy Janowicz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 67% | 3% 0% | 45% 83% |
| 2 | 40% 33% | 17% 80% | 43% 85% |
| 3 | 37% 64% | 10% 67% | 53% 44% |
| 4 | 47% 50% | 3% 100% | 50% 60% |
Set to set −0.01 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.63 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Andy Murray
8.9 points left on the table across 357 shots 2.50 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH slice down the line ×5; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
Jerzy Janowicz
7.8 points left on the table across 349 shots 2.24 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×5; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts