Hobart · R16 · Hard · 8 Jan 2014
Yanina Wickmayer v Garbine Muguruza
10–18 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Garbine Muguruza won 4.1 more points than Yanina Wickmayer relative to what the serve alone predicted. Yanina Wickmayer's biggest leaks: return execution −1.5, forehand execution −1.4, backhand execution −0.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Yanina Wickmayer | Garbine Muguruza | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.5 | −1.4 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.7 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.5 | −1.4 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.2 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.6 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.7 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.1 | +0.9 | −4.1 | −3.1 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.7 | +1.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Yanina Wickmayer | Garbine Muguruza | Net, Yanina | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.1 | +1.0 | −4.1 |
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Yanina Wickmayer
0.9 points left on the table across 38 shots 2.29 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.11 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.08 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.07 pts
Garbine Muguruza
1.0 points left on the table across 38 shots 2.60 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.10 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.10 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.09 pts