Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 13 Jan 2014
Bernard Tomic v Rafael Nadal
24–30 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Rafael Nadal won 3.3 more points than Bernard Tomic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Bernard Tomic's biggest leaks: return execution −1.3, slice shot selection −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Bernard Tomic | Rafael Nadal | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −1.3 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −1.0 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +0.3 | +1.6 | +1.5 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +3.0 | +3.3 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.8 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −0.9 | −0.4 | −1.5 | −0.3 | −0.9 | +0.3 | −0.9 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.6 |
| All shots | −0.7 | −1.2 | +1.2 | −0.7 | −0.6 | −0.3 | +3.4 | +2.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Bernard Tomic | Rafael Nadal | Net, Bernard | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.7 | +2.6 | −3.3 |
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Bernard Tomic
2.2 points left on the table across 58 shots 3.73 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your unknown spot hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
Rafael Nadal
1.8 points left on the table across 53 shots 3.49 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your unknown spot hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts