Australian Open · R32 · Hard · 18 Jan 2014
Gael Monfils v Rafael Nadal
70–107 in points · Rafael Nadal won
Why it went the way it did
Rafael Nadal won 20.6 more points than Gael Monfils relative to what the serve alone predicted. Gael Monfils's biggest leaks: forehand execution −7.1, backhand shot selection −1.8, slice shot selection −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Gael Monfils | Rafael Nadal | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.4 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.1 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +6.1 | +6.4 |
| Forehand | −1.0 | +2.2 | −7.1 | −5.9 | +0.6 | +2.8 | +1.2 | +4.6 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | −1.8 | +0.7 | −1.1 | −0.5 | +0.1 | +2.0 | +1.6 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.5 | −0.6 | −2.2 | −0.6 | −2.0 | +0.9 | −1.7 |
| Net | −0.7 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.5 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +1.0 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.8 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.6 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.4 |
| All shots | −2.4 | −1.2 | −6.5 | −10.1 | −0.9 | +0.2 | +11.2 | +10.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Gael Monfils | Rafael Nadal | Net, Gael | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.6 | +1.1 | −5.6 | |
| 2 | −5.0 | +3.8 | −8.7 | |
| 3 | −0.5 | +5.7 | −6.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Gael Monfils serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 36% | 17% 60% | 47% 43% |
| 2 | 38% 45% | 28% 50% | 34% 60% |
| 3 | 39% 60% | 5% 100% | 55% 48% |
Set to set −0.02 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Rafael Nadal serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 85% | 21% 67% | 34% 30% |
| 2 | 29% 100% | 35% 83% | 35% 100% |
| 3 | 45% 67% | 18% 67% | 36% 83% |
Set to set +0.41 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.10 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Gael Monfils
11.0 points left on the table across 323 shots 3.40 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your unknown spot hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.78 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your unknown spot hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
Rafael Nadal
7.7 points left on the table across 291 shots 2.65 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your unknown spot hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your unknown spot hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your unknown spot hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts