Australian Open · QF · Hard · 22 Jan 2014

Grigor Dimitrov v Rafael Nadal

132–147 in points · Rafael Nadal won

Why it went the way it did

Rafael Nadal won 12.6 more points than Grigor Dimitrov relative to what the serve alone predicted. Grigor Dimitrov's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.9, forehand execution −5.6, backhand direction choices −1.1.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

Shot	Grigor Dimitrov				Rafael Nadal
Shot	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total
Serve 1st	−0.8	−0.2	+2.5	+1.5	−1.6	−0.2	+0.8	−0.9
Serve 2nd	±0.0	+0.1	−0.2	−0.1	−0.1	±0.0	−2.5	−2.6
Return	±0.0	−0.5	+0.2	−0.3	±0.0	+1.2	+3.6	+4.7
Forehand	−1.0	+6.1	−5.6	−0.5	+0.3	+4.5	−1.1	+3.8
Backhand	−1.1	±0.0	+1.7	+0.6	+0.4	−0.1	+2.6	+2.9
Slice	−1.0	−5.9	−0.8	−7.7	−1.0	−2.6	+1.2	−2.3
Net	−0.1	+1.3	+1.0	+2.1	+0.9	+0.5	+2.3	+3.8
Touch	±0.0	−0.4	+0.5	+0.1	−0.1	−1.0	−0.1	−1.2
Other	±0.0	−0.1	+0.1	±0.0	±0.0	±0.0	±0.0	±0.0
All shots	−4.0	+0.4	−0.8	−4.4	−1.1	+2.4	+6.8	+8.2

Set by set

Set	Grigor Dimitrov	Rafael Nadal	Net, Grigor
1	+1.6	+1.0	+0.6
2	−3.5	+0.1	−3.6
3	+1.8	+2.8	−1.1
4	−4.3	+4.2	−8.5

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Grigor Dimitrov serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	45% 69%	10% 67%	45% 77%
2	38% 87%	13% 40%	49% 53%
3	29% 42%	36% 73%	36% 67%
4	26% 45%	12% 20%	62% 58%

Set to set −1.27 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.74 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Rafael Nadal serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	32% 67%	21% 75%	47% 78%
2	36% 79%	33% 77%	31% 67%
3	31% 79%	29% 85%	40% 39%
4	33% 100%	43% 67%	24% 60%

Set to set +0.56 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Grigor Dimitrov

16.8 points left on the table across 466 shots 3.61 per 100 shots

Serve +1: deep return to your unknown spot hit FH through the middle ×10; FH down the line rates higher · 1.50 pts
Serve +1: mid-depth return to your unknown spot hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.91 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×23; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.89 pts
Serve +1: short return to your unknown spot hit FH down the line ×14; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.72 pts

Rafael Nadal

11.2 points left on the table across 444 shots 2.51 per 100 shots

Serve +1: deep return to your unknown spot hit FH through the middle ×9; FH down the line rates higher · 1.35 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
Serve +1: deep return to your unknown spot hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.41 pts