Doha · QF · Hard · 14 Feb 2014
Petra Cetkovska v Angelique Kerber
25–54 in points · Angelique Kerber won
Why it went the way it did
Angelique Kerber won 15.0 more points than Petra Cetkovska relative to what the serve alone predicted. Petra Cetkovska's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.0, slice shot selection −2.4, backhand execution −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Petra Cetkovska | Angelique Kerber | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.8 | +1.9 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +1.7 | −4.0 | −1.6 | +1.2 | +1.3 | +0.9 | +3.4 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.6 | −1.4 | −0.6 | +0.5 | +0.9 | +2.8 | +4.3 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −2.4 | −1.0 | −3.1 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | +0.4 | −0.7 |
| Net | −0.4 | −0.1 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | +1.0 | +0.4 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.4 | +1.3 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.4 | −0.2 |
| All shots | +0.5 | −0.6 | −6.5 | −6.6 | +1.2 | +0.5 | +6.6 | +8.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Petra Cetkovska | Angelique Kerber | Net, Petra | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.5 | +2.5 | −7.0 | |
| 2 | −2.1 | +5.9 | −8.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Petra Cetkovska serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23% 33% | 23% 50% | 54% 21% |
| 2 | 29% 20% | 53% 22% | 18% 33% |
Within sets +0.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Angelique Kerber serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 67% | 21% 50% | 47% 56% |
| 2 | 47% 88% | 18% 67% | 35% 50% |
Within sets +2.42 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Petra Cetkovska
4.7 points left on the table across 198 shots 2.38 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
Angelique Kerber
4.0 points left on the table across 191 shots 2.10 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Long rally, 9+: lob to your middle, you at net hit BH smash through the middle ×1; BH smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.19 pts