Miami Masters · R16 · Hard · 25 Mar 2014
Fabio Fognini v Rafael Nadal
29–54 in points · Rafael Nadal won
Why it went the way it did
Rafael Nadal won 13.4 more points than Fabio Fognini relative to what the serve alone predicted. Fabio Fognini's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.1, backhand execution −2.9, return execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Fabio Fognini | Rafael Nadal | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.5 | −0.1 | −1.2 | −1.8 | −0.3 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −1.7 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −0.4 | +0.1 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.4 | −4.1 | −2.7 | +0.3 | +1.4 | +3.2 | +4.9 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −2.9 | −3.4 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +1.8 | +2.0 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.9 | +0.5 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.9 | −1.7 |
| Net | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.1 | +1.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.6 | +0.7 | −7.1 | −6.9 | −0.1 | +1.2 | +5.4 | +6.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Fabio Fognini | Rafael Nadal | Net, Fabio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.9 | +2.6 | −7.5 | |
| 2 | −2.0 | +4.0 | −5.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Fabio Fognini serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 50% | 36% 56% | 32% 50% |
| 2 | 24% 80% | 29% 50% | 48% 50% |
Within sets −1.40 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Rafael Nadal serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 83% | 17% 100% | 50% 89% |
| 2 | 44% 88% | 33% 100% | 22% 75% |
Within sets −0.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Fabio Fognini
3.4 points left on the table across 125 shots 2.71 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your unknown spot hit FH through the middle ×2; FH down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
Rafael Nadal
2.9 points left on the table across 115 shots 2.56 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your unknown spot hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your unknown spot hit FH crosscourt ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts