Itajai · R32 · Clay · 9 Apr 2014
Mohamed Safwat v Eduardo Russi
53–28 in points · Mohamed Safwat won
Why it went the way it did
Mohamed Safwat won 11.4 more points than Eduardo Russi relative to what the serve alone predicted. Eduardo Russi's biggest leaks: return execution −3.2, net execution −2.8, forehand execution −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Mohamed Safwat | Eduardo Russi | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −0.5 | +0.4 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.1 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −3.2 | −3.3 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +0.9 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.5 | −2.2 | −1.8 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −1.1 | −1.5 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −1.4 | −0.1 | −1.6 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.9 | +1.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.8 | −2.9 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | +0.7 | −1.9 | −1.2 | −0.9 | −1.1 | −10.7 | −12.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Mohamed Safwat | Eduardo Russi | Net, Mohamed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.5 | −5.9 | +5.4 | |
| 2 | −0.8 | −6.8 | +6.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Mohamed Safwat serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% 57% | 9% 50% | 61% 86% |
| 2 | 41% 89% | 18% 75% | 41% 56% |
Within sets −0.01 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Eduardo Russi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 75% | 21% 33% | 50% 29% |
| 2 | 18% 50% | 36% 38% | 45% 50% |
Within sets +0.37 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Mohamed Safwat
2.3 points left on the table across 91 shots 2.55 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×1; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
Eduardo Russi
3.3 points left on the table across 92 shots 3.54 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts