Sofia · RR · Hard · 27 Oct 2014
Kate Makarova v Garbine Muguruza
43–65 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Garbine Muguruza won 12.3 more points than Kate Makarova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Kate Makarova's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.3, return execution −0.8, serve 2nd execution −0.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Kate Makarova | Garbine Muguruza | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.8 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.6 | +1.1 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +0.8 | −0.5 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +2.2 | +2.9 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.2 | −4.3 | −3.9 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +1.4 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −0.9 |
| Net | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.5 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.8 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −5.9 | −5.8 | +0.3 | +1.1 | +5.1 | +6.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Kate Makarova | Garbine Muguruza | Net, Kate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.1 | +1.9 | −5.0 | |
| 2 | −2.7 | +4.5 | −7.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Kate Makarova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17% 75% | 33% 38% | 50% 50% |
| 2 | 38% 40% | 10% 0% | 53% 57% |
Within sets −0.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Garbine Muguruza serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 71% | 21% 80% | 50% 67% |
| 2 | 35% 86% | 20% 50% | 45% 67% |
Within sets −1.39 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Kate Makarova
3.4 points left on the table across 143 shots 2.37 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.19 pts
Garbine Muguruza
3.3 points left on the table across 160 shots 2.06 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×2; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts