Champaign CH · R32 · Hard · 11 Nov 2014
Jared Donaldson v Alex Kuznetsov
62–47 in points · Jared Donaldson won
Why it went the way it did
Jared Donaldson won 7.1 more points than Alex Kuznetsov relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alex Kuznetsov's biggest leaks: forehand execution −7.4, net execution −1.7, slice shot selection −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jared Donaldson | Alex Kuznetsov | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | −0.1 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.3 | +0.6 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +0.2 | +2.6 | +2.7 | +0.4 | +0.7 | −7.4 | −6.3 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +1.7 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | +0.1 | −1.3 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.4 | −1.1 | −0.5 | +0.6 | +1.0 | −1.7 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −0.3 | −1.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| All shots | −0.5 | −1.0 | +4.2 | +2.7 | +0.8 | +0.5 | −5.7 | −4.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Jared Donaldson | Alex Kuznetsov | Net, Jared | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.5 | −1.2 | +3.6 | |
| 2 | +0.2 | −3.3 | +3.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jared Donaldson serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 100% | 13% 67% | 58% 79% |
| 2 | 34% 55% | 22% 71% | 44% 64% |
Within sets +0.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alex Kuznetsov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 90% | 12% 67% | 48% 50% |
| 2 | 29% 63% | 14% 50% | 57% 44% |
Within sets −1.03 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jared Donaldson
2.9 points left on the table across 139 shots 2.07 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
Alex Kuznetsov
2.9 points left on the table across 159 shots 1.80 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts