Australian Open · R16 · Hard · 25 Jan 2015
Madison Brengle v Madison Keys
49–65 in points · Madison Keys won
Why it went the way it did
Madison Keys won 9.4 more points than Madison Brengle relative to what the serve alone predicted. Madison Brengle's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.0, serve 1st execution −2.6, return shot selection −0.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Madison Brengle | Madison Keys | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −2.6 | −3.0 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.9 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Return | +0.3 | −0.7 | +1.0 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −2.5 | −2.3 |
| Forehand | −0.6 | +0.6 | −0.3 | −0.3 | +0.6 | +2.3 | +2.3 | +5.2 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +0.1 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −1.0 | −0.8 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −3.0 | +0.1 | −3.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.5 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +1.1 | +2.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.9 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| All shots | −0.6 | −2.4 | −1.1 | −4.1 | +1.0 | +3.3 | +1.0 | +5.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Madison Brengle | Madison Keys | Net, Madison | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.5 | +2.4 | −5.9 | |
| 2 | −0.6 | +2.9 | −3.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Madison Brengle serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 60% | 33% 44% | 30% 50% |
| 2 | 34% 64% | 32% 46% | 34% 57% |
Within sets −1.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Madison Keys serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 70% 79% | – | 30% 83% |
| 2 | 62% 56% | 4% 100% | 35% 89% |
Within sets +0.53 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Madison Brengle
5.3 points left on the table across 182 shots 2.90 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Madison Keys
6.1 points left on the table across 224 shots 2.74 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts