ITF Midland · SF · Hard · 7 Feb 2015
Louisa Chirico v Katerina Vankova
61–32 in points · Louisa Chirico won
Why it went the way it did
Louisa Chirico won 13.9 more points than Katerina Vankova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Katerina Vankova's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.7, forehand execution −2.8, slice execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Louisa Chirico | Katerina Vankova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.1 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −2.8 | −2.6 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −1.3 | −1.9 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +0.6 | +2.9 | +3.1 | −0.4 | +0.5 | −2.8 | −2.7 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +0.7 | −0.5 | −0.3 | −3.7 | −4.4 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.3 | −0.5 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.5 | −2.9 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.6 |
| All shots | −1.0 | −0.5 | +1.7 | +0.2 | −1.4 | −1.7 | −10.6 | −13.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Louisa Chirico | Katerina Vankova | Net, Louisa | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.5 | −8.2 | +8.7 | |
| 2 | −0.3 | −5.5 | +5.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Louisa Chirico serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 83% | 22% 100% | 44% 88% |
| 2 | 18% 83% | 42% 64% | 39% 62% |
Within sets +0.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Katerina Vankova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20% 25% | 50% 50% | 30% 33% |
| 2 | 33% 57% | 14% 0% | 52% 55% |
Within sets +1.56 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Louisa Chirico
4.1 points left on the table across 141 shots 2.93 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
Katerina Vankova
5.4 points left on the table across 148 shots 3.63 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH inside-out rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts