Dubai · R32 · Hard · 17 Feb 2015
Sabine Lisicki v Monica Niculescu
83–66 in points · Sabine Lisicki won
Why it went the way it did
Sabine Lisicki won 10.0 more points than Monica Niculescu relative to what the serve alone predicted. Monica Niculescu's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −10.2, return shot selection −2.9, serve 1st direction choices −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sabine Lisicki | Monica Niculescu | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +4.3 | +4.5 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.9 | +4.1 | +4.8 | −0.2 | −2.9 | +0.7 | −2.5 |
| Forehand | −0.9 | +0.7 | −4.6 | −4.7 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.3 | ±0.0 |
| Backhand | −0.6 | −0.4 | +2.1 | +1.2 | −1.2 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −1.3 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.4 | −1.3 | −2.8 | −0.3 | −10.2 | +5.7 | −4.8 |
| Net | +0.1 | +1.1 | −1.5 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.7 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.3 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | +0.4 | −0.7 |
| All shots | −1.4 | +0.3 | +1.5 | +0.4 | −3.0 | −13.4 | +6.8 | −9.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Sabine Lisicki | Monica Niculescu | Net, Sabine | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.2 | −5.6 | +5.4 | |
| 2 | +0.6 | −4.0 | +4.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sabine Lisicki serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 75% | 8% 67% | 47% 59% |
| 2 | 48% 62% | 11% 33% | 41% 82% |
Set to set −0.32 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.40 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Monica Niculescu serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% 45% | 48% 45% | 26% 73% |
| 2 | 27% 58% | 52% 52% | 20% 44% |
Set to set +0.49 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sabine Lisicki
9.6 points left on the table across 298 shots 3.21 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH down the line rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×10; BH down the line rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×4; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.27 pts
Monica Niculescu
9.5 points left on the table across 251 shots 3.79 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×8; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.61 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH slice through the middle ×4; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts