Indian Wells Masters · QF · Hard · 21 Mar 2015
Milos Raonic v Rafael Nadal
106–116 in points · Milos Raonic won
Why it went the way it did
Rafael Nadal won 7.3 more points than Milos Raonic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Milos Raonic's biggest leaks: forehand execution −8.5, backhand execution −4.0, return execution −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Milos Raonic | Rafael Nadal | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | −0.1 | +3.8 | +4.2 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.1 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.6 | −2.3 | −1.4 | −0.5 | −0.6 | +0.5 | −0.6 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +4.2 | −8.5 | −3.8 | +0.2 | +1.5 | +1.8 | +3.5 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.3 | −4.0 | −3.9 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −1.5 | −1.3 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.5 | −1.1 | −2.4 | −0.8 | −2.7 | +0.2 | −3.3 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.9 | +1.1 | +2.2 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +1.5 | +2.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +1.1 | +0.6 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +1.6 | +4.5 | −12.1 | −6.1 | −1.4 | −1.8 | +4.4 | +1.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Milos Raonic | Rafael Nadal | Net, Milos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.2 | +2.1 | −3.4 | |
| 2 | −6.7 | −2.4 | −4.4 | |
| 3 | +1.9 | +1.4 | +0.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Milos Raonic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 60% | – | 57% 77% |
| 2 | 65% 67% | 4% 50% | 31% 71% |
| 3 | 46% 58% | – | 54% 77% |
Set to set +0.88 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.56 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Rafael Nadal serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 83% | 4% 100% | 46% 82% |
| 2 | 36% 73% | 7% 67% | 57% 83% |
| 3 | 32% 67% | 16% 67% | 51% 68% |
Set to set −0.19 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.03 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Milos Raonic
7.0 points left on the table across 334 shots 2.08 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×6; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Rafael Nadal
11.6 points left on the table across 310 shots 3.75 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH slice through the middle ×9; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×8; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.42 pts