Fed Cup World Group SF · RR · Clay · 18 Apr 2015
Sabine Lisicki v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
103–107 in points · Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova won
Why it went the way it did
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova won 0.5 more points than Sabine Lisicki relative to what the serve alone predicted. Sabine Lisicki's biggest leaks: return execution −7.4, forehand execution −5.6, slice shot selection −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sabine Lisicki | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.1 | +1.9 | +2.1 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.8 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −4.0 | −4.1 |
| Return | +0.2 | +1.1 | −7.4 | −6.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +1.2 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +2.7 | −5.6 | −2.6 | +0.4 | +1.8 | −1.2 | +1.0 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +1.2 | +1.6 | +2.7 | +0.3 | +0.2 | −0.4 | +0.1 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.3 | −0.8 | −2.9 | −0.1 | −1.2 | −1.1 | −2.5 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.7 | −1.0 | −0.3 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −2.0 | −1.7 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.6 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.7 |
| All shots | +0.8 | +3.4 | −11.6 | −7.3 | +0.4 | +0.9 | −8.2 | −6.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Sabine Lisicki | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | Net, Sabine | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.4 | −2.5 | +2.9 | |
| 2 | −2.6 | −2.2 | −0.4 | |
| 3 | −5.1 | −2.1 | −3.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sabine Lisicki serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 100% | 14% 25% | 50% 57% |
| 2 | 57% 57% | 14% 80% | 30% 55% |
| 3 | 43% 58% | 18% 20% | 39% 45% |
Set to set −0.08 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.50 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 60% | 40% 50% | 31% 64% |
| 2 | 35% 47% | 24% 62% | 41% 68% |
| 3 | 29% 63% | 43% 50% | 29% 63% |
Set to set +0.52 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.53 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sabine Lisicki
7.0 points left on the table across 302 shots 2.32 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
5.8 points left on the table across 277 shots 2.10 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts