Stuttgart · R32 · Clay · 21 Apr 2015
Garbine Muguruza v Barbora Strycova
61–42 in points · Garbine Muguruza won
Why it went the way it did
Garbine Muguruza won 9.2 more points than Barbora Strycova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Barbora Strycova's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.7, slice shot selection −3.2, return shot selection −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Garbine Muguruza | Barbora Strycova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −1.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.9 | +1.2 | −0.1 | −1.9 | −0.9 | −2.9 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +0.9 | −2.5 | −1.0 | +0.5 | +1.9 | −3.7 | −1.3 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.1 | +4.3 | +4.3 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.9 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −3.2 | +1.6 | −1.9 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.3 | +0.8 | −0.2 | +1.0 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.2 |
| All shots | +0.5 | +1.4 | +2.0 | +3.9 | +0.3 | −1.9 | −3.7 | −5.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Garbine Muguruza | Barbora Strycova | Net, Garbine | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.7 | −5.1 | +6.8 | |
| 2 | +2.1 | −0.2 | +2.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Garbine Muguruza serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% 71% | 16% 100% | 56% 64% |
| 2 | 38% 73% | 31% 44% | 31% 67% |
Within sets +1.14 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Barbora Strycova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 0% | 21% 67% | 43% 50% |
| 2 | 20% 57% | 31% 55% | 49% 53% |
Within sets +1.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Garbine Muguruza
4.0 points left on the table across 195 shots 2.04 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Barbora Strycova
5.0 points left on the table across 193 shots 2.60 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit FH slice crosscourt ×1; FH slice through the middle rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH lob through the middle ×1; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×3; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts