Stuttgart · R16 · Grass · 11 Jun 2015
Bernard Tomic v Tommy Haas
72–52 in points · Bernard Tomic won
Why it went the way it did
Bernard Tomic won 12.8 more points than Tommy Haas relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tommy Haas's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.3, serve 2nd execution −1.5, slice shot selection −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Bernard Tomic | Tommy Haas | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +1.6 | +1.5 | +0.2 | −0.2 | −1.1 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −1.6 |
| Return | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +2.9 | +2.9 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.7 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.9 | −0.4 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | −3.3 | −2.1 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.3 | +3.3 | +3.9 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.4 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −1.8 | +0.3 | −1.3 | +0.1 | −1.1 | −0.5 | −1.4 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +1.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.6 | +0.4 |
| All shots | +1.0 | −1.2 | +8.3 | +8.0 | +0.9 | +0.5 | −6.2 | −4.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Bernard Tomic | Tommy Haas | Net, Bernard | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.7 | −0.3 | +4.1 | |
| 2 | +4.3 | −4.5 | +8.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Bernard Tomic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 88% | 3% 100% | 49% 71% |
| 2 | 63% 92% | 11% 100% | 26% 60% |
Set to set +1.62 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.45 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tommy Haas serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 75% | – | 41% 59% |
| 2 | 52% 47% | 3% 0% | 45% 54% |
Set to set −0.50 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.86 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Bernard Tomic
3.1 points left on the table across 163 shots 1.91 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH down the line ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice inside-out rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
Tommy Haas
3.8 points left on the table across 157 shots 2.40 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts