s Hertogenbosch · R16 · Grass · 11 Jun 2015
Jelena Jankovic v Andrea Hlavackova
61–40 in points · Jelena Jankovic won
Why it went the way it did
Jelena Jankovic won 10.4 more points than Andrea Hlavackova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Andrea Hlavackova's biggest leaks: return execution −3.5, forehand execution −2.4, backhand execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jelena Jankovic | Andrea Hlavackova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.5 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −0.9 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.4 | +3.8 | +3.2 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −3.5 | −3.2 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −3.2 | −2.6 | +0.1 | +0.7 | −2.4 | −1.6 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +1.5 | +2.1 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −1.7 | −1.5 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.5 | +0.2 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.6 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.8 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.2 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +0.7 | −0.4 | +3.1 | +3.3 | +0.2 | +0.7 | −7.9 | −7.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Jelena Jankovic | Andrea Hlavackova | Net, Jelena | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.9 | −1.9 | +6.8 | |
| 2 | −1.5 | −5.1 | +3.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jelena Jankovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 71% 73% | – | 29% 83% |
| 2 | 57% 82% | 3% 100% | 40% 58% |
Within sets +0.44 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Andrea Hlavackova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 58% | 5% 0% | 32% 17% |
| 2 | 48% 60% | 3% 100% | 48% 60% |
Within sets +3.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jelena Jankovic
3.2 points left on the table across 121 shots 2.65 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice crosscourt ×3; BH slice through the middle rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit FH slice through the middle + approach ×1; FH slice crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.13 pts
Andrea Hlavackova
3.7 points left on the table across 128 shots 2.93 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit BH drop shot through the middle ×1; BH drop shot down the line rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.14 pts