Wimbledon · R64 · Grass · 1 Jul 2015
Su Wei Hsieh v Lucie Safarova
48–70 in points · Lucie Safarova won
Why it went the way it did
Lucie Safarova won 14.2 more points than Su Wei Hsieh relative to what the serve alone predicted. Su Wei Hsieh's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.5, serve 1st execution −1.7, net execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Su Wei Hsieh | Lucie Safarova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.9 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +2.7 | +3.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.4 | −1.0 | −1.5 | −0.5 | +1.8 | −1.1 | +0.3 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +0.6 | −2.5 | −1.4 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +4.1 | +5.4 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +1.1 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.2 | −0.8 | −2.0 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −0.4 | −1.3 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.6 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.4 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.9 |
| All shots | +0.8 | −0.4 | −6.5 | −6.1 | −0.1 | +2.7 | +5.5 | +8.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Su Wei Hsieh | Lucie Safarova | Net, Su | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.3 | +4.4 | −7.7 | |
| 2 | −2.7 | +3.7 | −6.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Su Wei Hsieh serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 31% | 26% 56% | 37% 62% |
| 2 | 32% 54% | 17% 57% | 51% 52% |
Set to set −1.38 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Lucie Safarova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% 79% | 5% 0% | 32% 86% |
| 2 | 55% 82% | 5% 100% | 40% 75% |
Within sets −0.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Su Wei Hsieh
2.6 points left on the table across 123 shots 2.10 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice through the middle rates higher · 0.13 pts
Lucie Safarova
5.2 points left on the table across 150 shots 3.48 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH down the line ×7; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.98 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts