Stanford · QF · Hard · 7 Aug 2015
Agnieszka Radwanska v Angelique Kerber
97–102 in points · Angelique Kerber won
Why it went the way it did
Angelique Kerber won 2.5 more points than Agnieszka Radwanska relative to what the serve alone predicted. Agnieszka Radwanska's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.7, touch shot selection −3.1, net execution −2.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Agnieszka Radwanska | Angelique Kerber | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.4 | +4.4 | +5.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +4.0 | +4.3 |
| Forehand | +1.0 | +3.7 | +4.5 | +9.3 | +0.4 | +3.4 | +6.3 | +10.1 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +1.9 | +3.4 | +5.0 | +0.1 | +1.7 | +2.1 | +4.0 |
| Slice | −0.6 | −4.7 | +2.0 | −3.3 | +0.1 | −2.5 | +0.8 | −1.6 |
| Net | +0.1 | +2.0 | −2.6 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.7 | +1.8 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −3.1 | +2.0 | −1.0 | −0.4 | −1.7 | +2.2 | +0.2 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.7 |
| All shots | +0.6 | +0.2 | +14.5 | +15.3 | −0.1 | +1.8 | +16.2 | +17.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Agnieszka Radwanska | Angelique Kerber | Net, Agnieszka | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +7.1 | +4.4 | +2.7 | |
| 2 | +4.3 | +5.0 | −0.6 | |
| 3 | +3.8 | +8.5 | −4.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Agnieszka Radwanska serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 82% | 11% 67% | 50% 50% |
| 2 | 26% 56% | 24% 63% | 50% 53% |
| 3 | 31% 55% | 11% 75% | 57% 45% |
Set to set −0.82 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Angelique Kerber serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 50% | 31% 40% | 25% 88% |
| 2 | 39% 56% | 22% 67% | 39% 56% |
| 3 | 54% 71% | 31% 63% | 15% 75% |
Set to set +1.67 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Agnieszka Radwanska
13.9 points left on the table across 520 shots 2.67 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH lob down the line ×3; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
Angelique Kerber
14.9 points left on the table across 525 shots 2.84 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×15; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×10; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.63 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.48 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts