Szczecin CH · R32 · Clay · 14 Sep 2015
Inigo Cervantes Huegun v Vladimir Ivanov
71–52 in points · Inigo Cervantes Huegun won
Why it went the way it did
Inigo Cervantes Huegun won 9.1 more points than Vladimir Ivanov relative to what the serve alone predicted. Vladimir Ivanov's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.4, forehand execution −2.2, serve 2nd execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Inigo Cervantes Huegun | Vladimir Ivanov | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +1.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.6 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −1.5 | −2.3 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.0 | −1.6 | −0.4 | −0.2 | +0.4 | −2.2 | −2.0 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | −0.8 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −2.4 | −2.0 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −0.3 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −0.3 | −1.7 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +1.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.7 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.5 | +0.3 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | +0.8 | −1.7 | +0.8 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.2 | −7.9 | −9.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Inigo Cervantes Huegun | Vladimir Ivanov | Net, Inigo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.6 | −4.9 | +6.4 | |
| 2 | −1.6 | −4.3 | +2.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Inigo Cervantes Huegun serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 73% | – | 54% 69% |
| 2 | 36% 64% | 3% 100% | 62% 63% |
Within sets +0.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Vladimir Ivanov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 40% | 7% 100% | 60% 22% |
| 2 | 43% 53% | 14% 67% | 43% 63% |
Within sets +0.83 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Inigo Cervantes Huegun
3.7 points left on the table across 200 shots 1.83 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
Vladimir Ivanov
4.7 points left on the table across 201 shots 2.34 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts