Tokyo · SF · Hard · 10 Oct 2015
Gilles Muller v Stan Wawrinka
66–77 in points · Stan Wawrinka won
Why it went the way it did
Stan Wawrinka won 7.7 more points than Gilles Muller relative to what the serve alone predicted. Gilles Muller's biggest leaks: return execution −3.9, slice shot selection −2.3, serve 2nd execution −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Gilles Muller | Stan Wawrinka | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | +1.1 | −0.4 | +0.7 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | +0.3 | −2.3 | −1.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +1.9 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.3 | −3.9 | −3.9 | −0.3 | −1.2 | −0.9 | −2.5 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +0.7 | +0.3 | +0.6 | −0.5 | +0.8 | +1.5 | +1.8 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +0.8 | −0.7 | −0.1 | +3.7 | +2.8 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.3 | −1.1 | −3.5 | ±0.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 | −2.6 |
| Net | +0.2 | −0.5 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.9 | −0.6 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −1.1 | −0.2 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −1.0 |
| All shots | −0.8 | −0.5 | −7.1 | −8.4 | −1.5 | −3.6 | +4.4 | −0.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Gilles Muller | Stan Wawrinka | Net, Gilles | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.3 | +1.9 | −4.2 | |
| 2 | −6.1 | −2.6 | −3.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Gilles Muller serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 73% | 10% 67% | 52% 60% |
| 2 | 54% 67% | 10% 40% | 36% 56% |
Set to set −2.10 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Stan Wawrinka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 79% | – | 42% 90% |
| 2 | 50% 80% | 8% 67% | 43% 53% |
Within sets −0.15 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Gilles Muller
8.6 points left on the table across 213 shots 4.04 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.26 pts
Stan Wawrinka
7.5 points left on the table across 219 shots 3.43 per 100 shots
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.53 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drop shot to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts