Singapore · RR · Hard · 25 Oct 2015
Angelique Kerber v Garbine Muguruza
64–77 in points · Garbine Muguruza won
Why it went the way it did
Garbine Muguruza won 7.5 more points than Angelique Kerber relative to what the serve alone predicted. Angelique Kerber's biggest leaks: touch shot selection −1.5, slice shot selection −1.2, return shot selection −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Angelique Kerber | Garbine Muguruza | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +2.0 | +3.0 |
| Forehand | +0.9 | +1.3 | +2.7 | +4.9 | +0.9 | +3.3 | +1.2 | +5.4 |
| Backhand | +0.5 | +1.5 | +3.5 | +5.4 | +0.6 | +2.4 | +0.6 | +3.7 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.2 | −0.5 | −1.9 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.5 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +3.0 | +3.7 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −1.5 | −0.1 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.4 | −2.3 |
| All shots | +1.4 | −0.4 | +6.3 | +7.2 | +1.4 | +5.9 | +7.4 | +14.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Angelique Kerber | Garbine Muguruza | Net, Angelique | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.1 | +6.6 | −3.5 | |
| 2 | +4.1 | +8.1 | −4.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Angelique Kerber serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 45% | 12% 100% | 46% 42% |
| 2 | 43% 55% | 6% 67% | 51% 50% |
Set to set −2.19 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Garbine Muguruza serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% 71% | 32% 45% | 47% 69% |
| 2 | 32% 33% | 21% 50% | 46% 92% |
Set to set +0.91 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Angelique Kerber
5.3 points left on the table across 231 shots 2.32 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×2; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Garbine Muguruza
4.4 points left on the table across 245 shots 1.81 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×4; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts