Singapore · RR · Hard · 25 Oct 2015
Maria Sharapova v Agnieszka Radwanska
111–110 in points · Maria Sharapova won
Why it went the way it did
Agnieszka Radwanska won 1.4 more points than Maria Sharapova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Maria Sharapova's biggest leaks: serve 2nd execution −2.7, backhand execution −2.4, slice shot selection −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Maria Sharapova | Agnieszka Radwanska | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −2.7 | −2.6 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +2.2 | +2.3 |
| Return | +0.3 | +1.1 | +4.7 | +6.1 | +0.2 | −0.4 | +1.0 | +0.8 |
| Forehand | +1.0 | +2.1 | +2.2 | +5.4 | −0.1 | +3.0 | +4.0 | +6.9 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +1.4 | −2.4 | −0.7 | +0.2 | +1.2 | +1.7 | +3.2 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.6 | −0.5 | −2.0 | +0.3 | −4.9 | +1.7 | −3.0 |
| Net | +0.5 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.4 | +2.5 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.5 | +1.5 | +2.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +3.4 | +4.0 | +2.4 | +9.9 | +0.8 | −0.4 | +10.8 | +11.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Maria Sharapova | Agnieszka Radwanska | Net, Maria | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.2 | +6.5 | −3.3 | |
| 2 | +4.6 | +0.9 | +3.7 | |
| 3 | +2.1 | +3.9 | −1.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Maria Sharapova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51% 65% | 4% 0% | 44% 55% |
| 2 | 42% 62% | – | 58% 61% |
| 3 | 45% 45% | 8% 25% | 47% 70% |
Set to set −0.39 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.24 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Agnieszka Radwanska serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 64% | 22% 57% | 34% 82% |
| 2 | 32% 55% | 21% 14% | 47% 63% |
| 3 | 47% 50% | 23% 86% | 30% 56% |
Set to set +0.39 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.03 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Maria Sharapova
8.4 points left on the table across 429 shots 1.95 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
Agnieszka Radwanska
10.0 points left on the table across 405 shots 2.47 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts