Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 18 Jan 2016
Carina Witthoeft v Saisai Zheng
41–63 in points · Saisai Zheng won
Why it went the way it did
Saisai Zheng won 11.6 more points than Carina Witthoeft relative to what the serve alone predicted. Carina Witthoeft's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.2, serve 2nd execution −3.0, forehand execution −2.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Carina Witthoeft | Saisai Zheng | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −3.0 | −3.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.3 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −0.6 | +0.1 | +1.3 | +0.9 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +1.0 | −2.4 | −0.8 | −0.7 | +1.2 | +4.6 | +5.1 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.2 | −3.2 | −2.6 | −0.5 | +0.6 | +1.8 | +1.9 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.4 | −2.5 | +0.5 | −1.6 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +1.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| All shots | +1.0 | +1.6 | −8.6 | −6.0 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | +6.9 | +5.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Carina Witthoeft | Saisai Zheng | Net, Carina | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.2 | +2.3 | −7.5 | |
| 2 | −0.8 | +3.3 | −4.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Carina Witthoeft serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 13% | – | 65% 40% |
| 2 | 50% 41% | 12% 25% | 38% 54% |
Within sets −0.35 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Saisai Zheng serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 60% | 7% 100% | 60% 67% |
| 2 | 31% 60% | 28% 67% | 41% 46% |
Within sets +0.30 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Carina Witthoeft
4.4 points left on the table across 213 shots 2.04 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Saisai Zheng
6.9 points left on the table across 207 shots 3.32 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts