Indian Wells Masters · R64 · Hard · 12 Mar 2016
Milos Raonic v Inigo Cervantes Huegun
55–32 in points · Milos Raonic won
Why it went the way it did
Milos Raonic won 13.1 more points than Inigo Cervantes Huegun relative to what the serve alone predicted. Inigo Cervantes Huegun's biggest leaks: return execution −2.5, serve 2nd execution −1.7, forehand execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Milos Raonic | Inigo Cervantes Huegun | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +1.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | +0.2 | +1.0 | +1.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.8 |
| Return | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +1.5 | +0.2 | −0.3 | −2.5 | −2.7 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.9 | +0.4 | +2.4 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −1.6 | −1.7 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −1.2 | −1.1 | −2.1 | −0.1 | −1.2 | −0.6 | −1.9 |
| Net | −0.7 | +0.2 | −1.2 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.5 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.5 |
| All shots | −0.4 | +1.8 | +1.7 | +3.2 | −0.3 | −1.9 | −7.8 | −9.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Milos Raonic | Inigo Cervantes Huegun | Net, Milos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.5 | −4.9 | +8.4 | |
| 2 | −0.3 | −5.0 | +4.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Milos Raonic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 100% | – | 39% 71% |
| 2 | 55% 64% | 15% 33% | 30% 83% |
Within sets +0.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Inigo Cervantes Huegun serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 33% | – | 65% 45% |
| 2 | 31% 50% | 6% 50% | 63% 50% |
Within sets −0.77 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Milos Raonic
4.2 points left on the table across 128 shots 3.28 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.85 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
Inigo Cervantes Huegun
3.4 points left on the table across 124 shots 2.75 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH inside-out + approach rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts