Karshi CH · R32 · Hard · 2 May 2016
Pavel Tsoy v Nikola Milojevic
31–61 in points · Nikola Milojevic won
Why it went the way it did
Nikola Milojevic won 17.6 more points than Pavel Tsoy relative to what the serve alone predicted. Pavel Tsoy's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.6, slice shot selection −2.5, return execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Pavel Tsoy | Nikola Milojevic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.5 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.5 |
| Return | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.5 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −1.0 | −0.5 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +1.3 | −4.6 | −3.6 | +0.1 | +1.2 | +1.3 | +2.7 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.8 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +2.3 | +2.4 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.5 | −0.2 | −2.6 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.2 | −0.8 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.7 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.7 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.5 |
| All shots | −0.8 | −1.4 | −9.1 | −11.3 | +0.8 | +1.1 | +4.4 | +6.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Pavel Tsoy | Nikola Milojevic | Net, Pavel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.9 | +1.8 | −8.7 | |
| 2 | −4.4 | +4.5 | −8.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Pavel Tsoy serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 40% | 22% 50% | 41% 36% |
| 2 | 36% 40% | 21% 67% | 43% 58% |
Within sets +1.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Nikola Milojevic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 80% | – | 67% 80% |
| 2 | 45% 90% | – | 55% 92% |
Within sets −0.80 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Pavel Tsoy
4.2 points left on the table across 158 shots 2.63 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
Nikola Milojevic
2.6 points left on the table across 173 shots 1.50 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts