Rome Masters · R16 · Clay · 12 May 2016
Rafael Nadal v Nick Kyrgios
112–99 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Rafael Nadal won 9.5 more points than Nick Kyrgios relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nick Kyrgios's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.6, forehand execution −3.6, net execution −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Rafael Nadal | Nick Kyrgios | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −1.1 | −0.1 | +1.7 | +0.5 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.7 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +2.2 | −2.3 | −0.1 | −0.3 | +0.6 | −1.6 | −1.3 |
| Forehand | +1.0 | +3.1 | +6.9 | +11.0 | +1.8 | +3.2 | −3.6 | +1.5 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | −0.1 | +4.6 | +4.6 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +4.1 | +4.4 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −3.7 | +0.7 | −3.2 | ±0.0 | −3.6 | −0.9 | −4.5 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 | +0.3 | +0.3 | −2.2 | −1.6 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.8 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.7 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.7 |
| All shots | −0.1 | +0.8 | +10.7 | +11.3 | +2.4 | +0.3 | −0.9 | +1.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Rafael Nadal | Nick Kyrgios | Net, Rafael | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.9 | +1.3 | −0.3 | |
| 2 | +4.0 | −2.3 | +6.2 | |
| 3 | +6.4 | +2.9 | +3.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Rafael Nadal serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% 70% | 53% 53% | 19% 71% |
| 2 | 37% 80% | 37% 70% | 26% 57% |
| 3 | 37% 73% | 33% 50% | 30% 100% |
Set to set +1.12 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.40 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Nick Kyrgios serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 65% | 10% 80% | 50% 56% |
| 2 | 55% 56% | 17% 60% | 28% 25% |
| 3 | 36% 71% | 5% 0% | 59% 61% |
Set to set +1.50 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Rafael Nadal
9.5 points left on the table across 449 shots 2.11 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
Nick Kyrgios
7.5 points left on the table across 453 shots 1.66 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, body, ad court hit FH through the middle ×9; FH down the line rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts