Samarkand CH · R32 · Clay · 16 May 2017
Sanjar Fayziev v Karim Mohamed Maamoun
49–70 in points · Karim Mohamed Maamoun won
Why it went the way it did
Karim Mohamed Maamoun won 10.1 more points than Sanjar Fayziev relative to what the serve alone predicted. Sanjar Fayziev's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.3, slice shot selection −2.9, serve 1st execution −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sanjar Fayziev | Karim Mohamed Maamoun | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −2.3 | −2.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.6 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | −1.9 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.6 | −2.2 | −2.0 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.5 | −0.4 |
| Forehand | −0.9 | +2.1 | −4.3 | −3.1 | +0.1 | +1.9 | +0.3 | +2.4 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.2 | −0.2 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | +1.4 | +0.5 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −2.9 | −0.8 | −4.1 | +0.1 | −2.2 | −0.6 | −2.8 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −1.2 | −0.8 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −1.0 | −1.2 | +0.1 | −0.5 | +1.2 | +0.8 |
| All shots | −1.9 | +0.4 | −11.6 | −13.1 | +0.4 | −1.3 | −2.0 | −2.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Sanjar Fayziev | Karim Mohamed Maamoun | Net, Sanjar | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.0 | +1.4 | −8.4 | |
| 2 | −6.1 | −4.4 | −1.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sanjar Fayziev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 57% | 6% 50% | 48% 27% |
| 2 | 37% 70% | 11% 33% | 52% 50% |
Set to set −1.55 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −2.85 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Karim Mohamed Maamoun serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 78% | 5% 0% | 47% 78% |
| 2 | 36% 60% | 5% 50% | 60% 64% |
Within sets −0.25 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sanjar Fayziev
8.3 points left on the table across 228 shots 3.62 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.82 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
Karim Mohamed Maamoun
6.1 points left on the table across 230 shots 2.64 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×2; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts