Roland Garros · R128 · Clay · 29 May 2017
Anett Kontaveit v Monica Niculescu
75–51 in points · Anett Kontaveit won
Why it went the way it did
Anett Kontaveit won 11.9 more points than Monica Niculescu relative to what the serve alone predicted. Monica Niculescu's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −13.4, return shot selection −5.2, touch execution −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Anett Kontaveit | Monica Niculescu | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.1 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.9 |
| Return | −0.4 | −0.4 | +3.5 | +2.7 | +0.1 | −5.2 | +2.7 | −2.4 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +1.1 | +1.9 | +2.9 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.6 | −0.3 |
| Backhand | +0.6 | −1.1 | −1.8 | −2.4 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +2.4 | +2.5 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.9 | +0.7 | −1.4 | +0.2 | −13.4 | +7.4 | −5.8 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.1 | +1.8 | +2.1 | +0.2 | +0.5 | −0.2 | +0.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.1 | +0.5 | +1.0 | −0.9 | +0.6 |
| All shots | +0.1 | −2.3 | +8.3 | +6.1 | +0.6 | −17.0 | +10.7 | −5.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Anett Kontaveit | Monica Niculescu | Net, Anett | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.9 | −2.7 | +3.6 | |
| 2 | +5.2 | −3.1 | +8.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Anett Kontaveit serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 56% | 20% 67% | 39% 76% |
| 2 | 50% 70% | 10% 50% | 40% 75% |
Set to set −1.23 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.78 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Monica Niculescu serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13% 83% | 36% 38% | 51% 65% |
| 2 | 12% 0% | 47% 13% | 41% 43% |
Set to set −1.90 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +2.52 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Anett Kontaveit
7.0 points left on the table across 261 shots 2.70 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×8; BH down the line rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH slice crosscourt ×3; FH slice through the middle rates higher · 0.26 pts
Monica Niculescu
6.3 points left on the table across 225 shots 2.78 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×6; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×7; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.53 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×3; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts