Roland Garros · R32 · Clay · 4 Jun 2017
Anastasija Sevastova v Petra Martic
28–56 in points · Petra Martic won
Why it went the way it did
Petra Martic won 14.1 more points than Anastasija Sevastova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Anastasija Sevastova's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.0, backhand execution −1.8, touch execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Anastasija Sevastova | Petra Martic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +3.1 | +3.2 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.1 | −4.0 | −2.8 | +0.1 | +1.4 | +1.6 | +3.0 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.2 | −1.8 | −1.3 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +1.3 | +1.5 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.2 | −1.1 | −0.2 | −2.8 | +1.0 | −2.0 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.7 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.9 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.2 | −1.3 | −1.5 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +2.0 | +2.6 |
| All shots | +0.3 | +0.1 | −6.3 | −5.8 | −0.5 | −0.6 | +9.3 | +8.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Anastasija Sevastova | Petra Martic | Net, Anastasija | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.8 | +2.5 | −6.3 | |
| 2 | −2.0 | +5.9 | −7.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Anastasija Sevastova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62% 54% | 24% 0% | 14% 33% |
| 2 | 41% 44% | 23% 40% | 36% 38% |
Within sets −2.98 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Petra Martic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 60% | 24% 75% | 47% 75% |
| 2 | 46% 73% | 25% 83% | 29% 71% |
Within sets −0.61 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Anastasija Sevastova
3.7 points left on the table across 167 shots 2.22 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Petra Martic
4.7 points left on the table across 167 shots 2.81 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts