Wimbledon · R128 · Grass · 4 Jul 2017
Oceane Dodin v Lucie Safarova
31–56 in points · Lucie Safarova won
Why it went the way it did
Lucie Safarova won 12.2 more points than Oceane Dodin relative to what the serve alone predicted. Oceane Dodin's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −2.6, forehand execution −1.9, return execution −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Oceane Dodin | Lucie Safarova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −2.6 | −2.5 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +2.7 | +3.0 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −0.8 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| Return | +0.2 | −0.1 | −1.4 | −1.4 | −0.5 | +1.1 | −1.8 | −1.1 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | −2.2 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +2.7 | +3.2 |
| Backhand | −0.5 | +0.5 | −0.3 | −0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.6 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.7 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| All shots | −0.4 | +0.2 | −7.8 | −8.0 | −0.1 | +1.2 | +3.2 | +4.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Oceane Dodin | Lucie Safarova | Net, Oceane | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.8 | +1.2 | −6.0 | |
| 2 | −3.1 | +3.1 | −6.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Oceane Dodin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18% 50% | 5% 0% | 77% 47% |
| 2 | 40% 50% | 10% 50% | 50% 40% |
Within sets −0.78 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Lucie Safarova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 67% | – | 59% 77% |
| 2 | 30% 71% | 9% 0% | 61% 86% |
Within sets +0.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Oceane Dodin
2.8 points left on the table across 82 shots 3.45 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.22 pts
Lucie Safarova
2.8 points left on the table across 82 shots 3.40 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts