Moscow · R32 · Hard · 16 Oct 2017
Alexander Bublik v Teymuraz Gabashvili
65–53 in points · Alexander Bublik won
Why it went the way it did
Alexander Bublik won 3.4 more points than Teymuraz Gabashvili relative to what the serve alone predicted. Teymuraz Gabashvili's biggest leaks: backhand execution −1.5, serve 1st execution −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alexander Bublik | Teymuraz Gabashvili | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +0.1 | +4.5 | +4.7 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +0.9 | +0.6 | +1.2 | +0.3 | +1.2 | +0.5 | +2.0 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.1 | −1.5 | −1.6 | −0.1 | +0.7 | −1.5 | −0.9 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.3 | +0.7 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −1.0 |
| Net | −0.1 | −0.2 | +1.2 | +0.9 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.5 | −1.8 | +5.6 | +3.2 | −0.5 | +1.6 | −1.3 | −0.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Alexander Bublik | Teymuraz Gabashvili | Net, Alexander | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.2 | −1.9 | +4.1 | |
| 2 | +1.0 | +1.7 | −0.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alexander Bublik serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 77% | 8% 100% | 42% 82% |
| 2 | 45% 68% | 5% 0% | 50% 71% |
Within sets +0.79 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Teymuraz Gabashvili serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% 86% | 26% 50% | 43% 60% |
| 2 | 48% 77% | 7% 100% | 44% 58% |
Within sets +0.94 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alexander Bublik
4.8 points left on the table across 152 shots 3.15 per 100 shots
- Return +1: slice to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.26 pts
Teymuraz Gabashvili
4.2 points left on the table across 150 shots 2.79 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: lob to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts