Moscow · R32 · Hard · 17 Oct 2017
Julia Goerges v Polina Monova
63–42 in points · Julia Goerges won
Why it went the way it did
Julia Goerges won 10.0 more points than Polina Monova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Polina Monova's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.0, serve 1st execution −1.3, slice shot selection −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Julia Goerges | Polina Monova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +1.1 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.2 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.9 | +1.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +3.4 | +3.6 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +1.7 | +2.3 | +4.6 | −0.2 | +0.4 | −0.5 | −0.4 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +1.0 | −1.3 | −0.3 | −0.1 | +1.2 | −4.0 | −2.9 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.9 | +0.5 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −1.2 | +0.6 | −0.5 |
| Net | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +1.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −0.2 | −0.9 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +1.0 | +1.8 | +4.1 | +6.9 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −3.1 | −3.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Julia Goerges | Polina Monova | Net, Julia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.4 | −2.7 | +7.1 | |
| 2 | +2.5 | −0.5 | +2.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Julia Goerges serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 78% | 5% 100% | 47% 56% |
| 2 | 51% 53% | 11% 25% | 38% 64% |
Within sets +0.51 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Polina Monova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19% 25% | 33% 29% | 48% 40% |
| 2 | 25% 57% | 32% 33% | 43% 42% |
Within sets −0.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Julia Goerges
3.0 points left on the table across 141 shots 2.12 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.13 pts
Polina Monova
3.4 points left on the table across 128 shots 2.68 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts