Australian Open · R32 · Hard · 15 Jan 2018
Su Wei Hsieh v Agnieszka Radwanska
74–55 in points · Su Wei Hsieh won
Why it went the way it did
Su Wei Hsieh won 8.8 more points than Agnieszka Radwanska relative to what the serve alone predicted. Agnieszka Radwanska's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.0, touch execution −1.4, touch shot selection −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Su Wei Hsieh | Agnieszka Radwanska | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| Return | +0.4 | −1.6 | +0.6 | −0.6 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.6 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +0.7 | +3.3 | +4.3 | −0.4 | +1.1 | +1.4 | +2.1 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.4 | +4.1 | +4.9 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −1.1 | −1.5 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.5 | +0.4 | −1.1 | +0.1 | −3.0 | +0.4 | −2.5 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +1.8 |
| Touch | −0.3 | −0.9 | +0.2 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.4 | −2.7 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.3 |
| All shots | +0.9 | −2.7 | +8.6 | +6.7 | −0.2 | −2.9 | +1.0 | −2.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Su Wei Hsieh | Agnieszka Radwanska | Net, Su | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.9 | −0.5 | +4.4 | |
| 2 | +2.8 | −1.5 | +4.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Su Wei Hsieh serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 75% | 16% 75% | 52% 46% |
| 2 | 49% 59% | 16% 57% | 36% 56% |
Within sets +0.24 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Agnieszka Radwanska serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 20% | 17% 50% | 42% 60% |
| 2 | 51% 50% | 17% 33% | 31% 45% |
Within sets +1.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Su Wei Hsieh
6.3 points left on the table across 268 shots 2.34 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH lob down the line ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Agnieszka Radwanska
7.7 points left on the table across 273 shots 2.81 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts