Fed Cup World Group II · RR · Hard · 10 Feb 2018
Sorana Cirstea v Carol Zhao
56–29 in points · Sorana Cirstea won
Why it went the way it did
Sorana Cirstea won 14.3 more points than Carol Zhao relative to what the serve alone predicted. Carol Zhao's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.6, backhand execution −1.5, net execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sorana Cirstea | Carol Zhao | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.8 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.1 | −1.1 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.3 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.9 | +3.8 | +5.1 | +0.2 | +0.7 | −3.6 | −2.8 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.6 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −1.5 | −1.0 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.5 | +0.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −1.3 | −1.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +0.9 | +1.4 | +5.1 | +7.4 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −7.5 | −6.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Sorana Cirstea | Carol Zhao | Net, Sorana | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.8 | −3.0 | +6.9 | |
| 2 | +3.6 | −3.8 | +7.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sorana Cirstea serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 90% | 14% 67% | 41% 44% |
| 2 | 44% 100% | 11% 100% | 44% 75% |
Within sets −0.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Carol Zhao serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 20% | 25% 60% | 25% 40% |
| 2 | 61% 36% | 9% 50% | 30% 86% |
Within sets −2.90 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sorana Cirstea
2.9 points left on the table across 141 shots 2.06 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
Carol Zhao
3.6 points left on the table across 138 shots 2.59 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drop shot to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH slice down the line ×1; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts