Miami · R128 · Hard · 21 Mar 2018
Lauren Davis v Petra Martic
51–72 in points · Petra Martic won
Why it went the way it did
Petra Martic won 12.9 more points than Lauren Davis relative to what the serve alone predicted. Lauren Davis's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.7, serve 2nd execution −3.7, return execution −3.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Lauren Davis | Petra Martic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −1.0 | +0.1 | −0.9 | −1.8 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −3.7 | −3.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.2 | −3.3 | −3.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +2.9 | +2.9 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +2.4 | −4.7 | −2.5 | +0.1 | +1.2 | +1.1 | +2.3 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.4 | −1.1 | −0.9 | −0.2 | +0.6 | −1.9 | −1.5 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.3 | +0.5 | −0.7 | −0.4 | −3.1 | +0.7 | −2.9 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.5 | −1.9 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.9 | +0.5 | +0.3 | −0.6 | −0.9 | −1.2 |
| All shots | −1.2 | +2.0 | −14.2 | −13.4 | −0.4 | −1.5 | +1.5 | −0.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Lauren Davis | Petra Martic | Net, Lauren | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.9 | +2.2 | −9.1 | |
| 2 | −6.5 | −2.7 | −3.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Lauren Davis serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% 29% | 43% 40% | 26% 33% |
| 2 | 30% 44% | 49% 54% | 21% 45% |
Within sets +1.20 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Petra Martic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 71% | 14% 100% | 36% 100% |
| 2 | 38% 67% | 28% 44% | 34% 55% |
Within sets +0.50 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Lauren Davis
7.1 points left on the table across 239 shots 2.96 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH down the line rates higher · 0.85 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
Petra Martic
7.2 points left on the table across 241 shots 2.97 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH down the line rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts