Charleston · SF · Clay · 8 Apr 2018
Madison Keys v Kiki Bertens
135–137 in points · Kiki Bertens won
Why it went the way it did
Madison Keys won 1.7 more points than Kiki Bertens relative to what the serve alone predicted. Kiki Bertens's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −7.5, forehand execution −6.0, backhand execution −2.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Madison Keys | Kiki Bertens | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | −0.1 | +1.3 | +1.0 | −0.6 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.5 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.8 | +2.0 | +3.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +4.7 | +4.6 |
| Forehand | +1.6 | +6.2 | −8.8 | −1.0 | +0.2 | +3.7 | −6.0 | −2.2 |
| Backhand | +1.0 | +0.6 | −4.1 | −2.5 | −0.1 | +1.4 | −2.5 | −1.2 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.5 | +0.8 | −1.7 | +0.3 | −7.5 | +1.2 | −6.0 |
| Net | +0.3 | +1.2 | −2.1 | −0.7 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.9 | +1.6 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.5 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +0.3 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +2.6 | +5.9 | −10.5 | −2.0 | −0.1 | −2.7 | −0.9 | −3.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Madison Keys | Kiki Bertens | Net, Madison | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.1 | −4.2 | −2.9 | |
| 2 | +2.0 | −1.3 | +3.3 | |
| 3 | +3.1 | +1.8 | +1.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Madison Keys serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 46% | 33% 36% | 27% 44% |
| 2 | 48% 55% | 19% 38% | 33% 50% |
| 3 | 59% 63% | 26% 58% | 15% 57% |
Set to set +0.44 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.12 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Kiki Bertens serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 59% | 20% 30% | 37% 58% |
| 2 | 38% 57% | 36% 40% | 25% 36% |
| 3 | 35% 53% | 37% 69% | 28% 50% |
Set to set −1.34 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.79 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Madison Keys
10.9 points left on the table across 538 shots 2.02 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
Kiki Bertens
11.6 points left on the table across 515 shots 2.24 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH down the line rates higher · 0.42 pts