Wimbledon · F · Grass · 14 Jul 2018
Serena Williams v Angelique Kerber
45–56 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Angelique Kerber won 5.6 more points than Serena Williams relative to what the serve alone predicted. Serena Williams's biggest leaks: return execution −2.4, net execution −1.8, backhand execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Serena Williams | Angelique Kerber | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.5 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +1.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.4 |
| Return | +0.5 | +0.3 | −2.4 | −1.7 | +0.4 | +1.2 | −0.2 | +1.4 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +2.3 | −0.5 | +1.9 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +4.0 | +5.8 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +1.5 | −1.1 | +0.6 | −0.3 | +0.2 | +1.9 | +1.8 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.4 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −0.7 | −2.2 |
| Net | −0.7 | +1.1 | −1.8 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.6 |
| All shots | +0.6 | +4.7 | −5.3 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.6 | +4.5 | +5.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Serena Williams | Angelique Kerber | Net, Serena | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.9 | +2.4 | −3.3 | |
| 2 | +1.0 | +3.2 | −2.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Serena Williams serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 50% | – | 45% 46% |
| 2 | 55% 58% | – | 45% 70% |
Set to set +0.38 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.39 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Angelique Kerber serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% 67% | 25% 60% | 45% 56% |
| 2 | 63% 68% | 20% 83% | 17% 60% |
Within sets −1.01 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Serena Williams
4.8 points left on the table across 195 shots 2.47 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Angelique Kerber
4.3 points left on the table across 176 shots 2.43 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts