Washington · R32 · Hard · 30 Jul 2018
Andrea Petkovic v Jamie Loeb
56–31 in points · Andrea Petkovic won
Why it went the way it did
Andrea Petkovic won 13.4 more points than Jamie Loeb relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jamie Loeb's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.8, backhand execution −2.5, slice shot selection −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Andrea Petkovic | Jamie Loeb | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.1 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +1.5 | +1.8 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.2 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.8 | −4.8 | −3.7 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −1.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −2.5 | −2.5 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.9 | +0.3 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −0.2 | −1.5 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −1.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.3 |
| All shots | −1.0 | +0.4 | +3.6 | +3.0 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −9.5 | −10.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Andrea Petkovic | Jamie Loeb | Net, Andrea | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.5 | −4.4 | +5.9 | |
| 2 | +1.5 | −6.0 | +7.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Andrea Petkovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20% 100% | 44% 55% | 36% 67% |
| 2 | 8% 100% | 54% 86% | 38% 80% |
Within sets +0.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jamie Loeb serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% 43% | 17% 0% | 52% 58% |
| 2 | 14% 33% | 48% 60% | 38% 13% |
Within sets −2.86 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Andrea Petkovic
4.0 points left on the table across 131 shots 3.02 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
Jamie Loeb
3.2 points left on the table across 138 shots 2.29 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.14 pts