US Open · R16 · Hard · 3 Sep 2018
Madison Keys v Dominika Cibulkova
67–41 in points · Madison Keys won
Why it went the way it did
Madison Keys won 14.8 more points than Dominika Cibulkova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Dominika Cibulkova's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.2, return execution −2.4, net execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Madison Keys | Dominika Cibulkova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.4 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.5 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.8 | −0.9 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −2.4 | −1.9 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +0.5 | +1.2 | +1.5 | −0.3 | +0.6 | −4.2 | −3.9 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.3 | +2.5 | +2.7 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.7 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.5 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −1.2 | −1.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.8 | −1.1 |
| All shots | +0.1 | +1.0 | +5.2 | +6.3 | −0.9 | +0.4 | −8.0 | −8.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Madison Keys | Dominika Cibulkova | Net, Madison | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.5 | −3.8 | +8.3 | |
| 2 | +1.8 | −4.7 | +6.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Madison Keys serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 71% | – | 65% 85% |
| 2 | 20% 75% | 30% 67% | 50% 70% |
Within sets −0.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Dominika Cibulkova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% 29% | 33% 55% | 45% 47% |
| 2 | 3% 0% | 46% 44% | 51% 50% |
Set to set +0.24 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.22 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Madison Keys
4.0 points left on the table across 184 shots 2.18 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Dominika Cibulkova
4.1 points left on the table across 159 shots 2.59 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.17 pts