Kaohsiung CH · QF · Hard · 21 Sep 2018
Gael Monfils v Ernests Gulbis
70–55 in points · Gael Monfils won
Why it went the way it did
Gael Monfils won 8.5 more points than Ernests Gulbis relative to what the serve alone predicted. Ernests Gulbis's biggest leaks: forehand execution −9.1, slice shot selection −1.2, serve 1st execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Gael Monfils | Ernests Gulbis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | −2.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.7 |
| Return | +0.2 | −0.5 | −2.2 | −2.5 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.3 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.8 | +1.5 | +2.4 | −0.2 | +0.4 | −9.1 | −8.9 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +1.0 | +1.4 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −2.8 | +2.1 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −1.2 | +1.0 | −0.2 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.7 | +0.6 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +1.4 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −0.3 | +0.8 | +0.6 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.3 | −1.2 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| All shots | +0.5 | −2.7 | +1.1 | −1.1 | −0.3 | −1.6 | −7.7 | −9.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Gael Monfils | Ernests Gulbis | Net, Gael | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.9 | −6.5 | +1.6 | |
| 2 | +3.7 | −3.1 | +6.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Gael Monfils serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 80% | 10% 100% | 54% 64% |
| 2 | 44% 88% | – | 56% 90% |
Set to set +0.54 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.95 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Ernests Gulbis serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 67% | 17% 71% | 40% 71% |
| 2 | 33% 75% | 13% 33% | 54% 46% |
Set to set +0.46 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Gael Monfils
4.0 points left on the table across 189 shots 2.10 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Long rally, 9+: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
Ernests Gulbis
4.4 points left on the table across 197 shots 2.25 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.13 pts