Brisbane · QF · Hard · 3 Jan 2019
Naomi Osaka v Anastasija Sevastova
76–58 in points · Naomi Osaka won
Why it went the way it did
Naomi Osaka won 8.2 more points than Anastasija Sevastova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Anastasija Sevastova's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.0, return shot selection −2.3, forehand execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Naomi Osaka | Anastasija Sevastova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +4.1 | +4.5 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.5 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 | −2.3 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +0.9 | −1.3 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +1.5 | −1.3 | +0.8 |
| Backhand | +0.7 | +0.8 | +3.9 | +5.4 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +3.3 | +4.4 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −0.9 | −0.5 | −1.6 | +0.3 | −3.0 | +0.7 | −2.0 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +1.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.9 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.2 | −1.4 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +2.0 | +0.4 | +6.8 | +9.2 | +1.6 | −2.8 | +2.2 | +1.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Naomi Osaka | Anastasija Sevastova | Net, Naomi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.3 | +2.7 | −4.0 | |
| 2 | +5.6 | −4.0 | +9.6 | |
| 3 | +4.9 | +2.3 | +2.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Naomi Osaka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 58% | 3% 100% | 55% 50% |
| 2 | 29% 75% | 7% 100% | 64% 89% |
| 3 | 33% 70% | – | 67% 75% |
Set to set −0.55 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.37 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Anastasija Sevastova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 70% | 14% 100% | 41% 67% |
| 2 | 53% 13% | 13% 0% | 33% 40% |
| 3 | 63% 67% | 8% 50% | 29% 71% |
Set to set −3.37 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.30 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Naomi Osaka
4.6 points left on the table across 229 shots 2.00 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH lob down the line ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
Anastasija Sevastova
4.6 points left on the table across 238 shots 1.94 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH slice down the line ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts