Dallas CH · R64 · Hard · 4 Feb 2019
Michael Redlicki v Goncalo Oliveira
78–56 in points · Michael Redlicki won
Why it went the way it did
Michael Redlicki won 10.4 more points than Goncalo Oliveira relative to what the serve alone predicted. Goncalo Oliveira's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.2, return execution −2.8, forehand direction choices −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Michael Redlicki | Goncalo Oliveira | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +3.5 | +3.4 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| Return | −0.6 | +0.2 | +3.1 | +2.7 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −2.8 | −3.5 |
| Forehand | −3.1 | +1.4 | −2.3 | −4.0 | −2.1 | +1.8 | +1.9 | +1.6 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | −0.7 | +1.6 | +0.9 | −0.9 | −1.7 | −4.2 | −6.8 |
| Slice | −0.4 | −0.8 | −0.3 | −1.5 | −0.3 | −1.1 | −1.0 | −2.5 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.9 | +1.3 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −0.6 | −0.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 |
| All shots | −4.0 | −0.5 | +5.1 | +0.6 | −4.0 | −0.9 | −5.0 | −9.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Michael Redlicki | Goncalo Oliveira | Net, Michael | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.3 | −4.6 | +5.9 | |
| 2 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.1 | |
| 3 | +0.2 | −4.4 | +4.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Michael Redlicki serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 88% | 11% 50% | 47% 89% |
| 2 | 38% 89% | 8% 0% | 54% 69% |
| 3 | 36% 67% | 12% 100% | 52% 69% |
Set to set +0.09 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.67 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Goncalo Oliveira serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 44% | 18% 75% | 41% 56% |
| 2 | 39% 64% | 25% 71% | 36% 80% |
| 3 | 40% 83% | 33% 40% | 27% 0% |
Set to set +0.74 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.97 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Michael Redlicki
11.7 points left on the table across 286 shots 4.11 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×17; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.90 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×8; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.84 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×14; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.80 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.65 pts
Goncalo Oliveira
11.1 points left on the table across 301 shots 3.70 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×17; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.90 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.63 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts