Doha · R16 · Hard · 13 Feb 2019
Su Wei Hsieh v Karolina Muchova
51–64 in points · Karolina Muchova won
Why it went the way it did
Karolina Muchova won 6.9 more points than Su Wei Hsieh relative to what the serve alone predicted. Su Wei Hsieh's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.9, slice shot selection −1.7, forehand execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Su Wei Hsieh | Karolina Muchova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +1.4 | +0.6 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.3 | −1.7 | −1.2 | +0.2 | +2.7 | −2.0 | +0.9 |
| Backhand | +0.6 | +0.9 | −3.9 | −2.4 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +1.7 | +2.3 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.7 | +1.5 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −2.3 | −0.2 | −2.5 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.7 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +1.7 | +2.2 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.9 | +0.3 | −0.8 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −1.2 | −1.0 |
| All shots | +0.5 | −2.1 | −2.9 | −4.5 | +0.8 | +1.3 | +0.4 | +2.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Su Wei Hsieh | Karolina Muchova | Net, Su | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.7 | −0.9 | −4.8 | |
| 2 | +1.2 | +3.4 | −2.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Su Wei Hsieh serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 35% | 24% 43% | 17% 60% |
| 2 | 53% 65% | 13% 50% | 34% 64% |
Set to set +4.43 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.82 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Karolina Muchova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 67% | 8% 50% | 42% 50% |
| 2 | 43% 69% | 10% 67% | 47% 71% |
Within sets +0.62 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Su Wei Hsieh
4.3 points left on the table across 186 shots 2.31 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drop shot to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH drop shot down the line ×2; FH drop shot crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH lob down the line ×2; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH lob through the middle ×3; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
Karolina Muchova
4.8 points left on the table across 195 shots 2.47 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts