Budapest · R32 · Hard · 20 Feb 2019
Georgina Garcia Perez v Marketa Vondrousova
53–68 in points · Marketa Vondrousova won
Why it went the way it did
Marketa Vondrousova won 8.1 more points than Georgina Garcia Perez relative to what the serve alone predicted. Georgina Garcia Perez's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.9, touch shot selection −1.8, slice shot selection −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Georgina Garcia Perez | Marketa Vondrousova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.5 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.6 | −0.9 | −0.5 | +0.5 | −2.0 | −1.2 | −2.7 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +1.0 | −5.9 | −5.0 | +0.9 | +1.2 | +2.2 | +4.4 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +1.5 | +1.7 | +3.5 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +1.8 | +2.2 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −1.5 | −0.3 | −2.1 | +0.1 | −1.7 | +0.1 | −1.5 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.5 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.9 |
| Touch | −0.3 | −1.8 | +0.1 | −2.0 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | +1.2 | +0.1 |
| All shots | +0.1 | −0.1 | −5.6 | −5.6 | +1.9 | −2.9 | +3.6 | +2.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Georgina Garcia Perez | Marketa Vondrousova | Net, Georgina | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.6 | +3.6 | −7.3 | |
| 2 | −1.9 | −1.1 | −0.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Georgina Garcia Perez serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 40% | – | 55% 33% |
| 2 | 56% 67% | – | 44% 58% |
Within sets −1.31 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Marketa Vondrousova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 71% | 6% 100% | 56% 70% |
| 2 | 32% 58% | 21% 50% | 47% 78% |
Within sets −0.56 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Georgina Garcia Perez
6.5 points left on the table across 263 shots 2.49 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Marketa Vondrousova
7.0 points left on the table across 272 shots 2.59 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×9; BH inside-out rates higher · 1.03 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit BH crosscourt ×6; BH inside-out rates higher · 0.77 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.48 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH slice through the middle ×5; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts