Acapulco · R16 · Hard · 28 Feb 2019
Varvara Flink v Johanna Konta
46–65 in points · Johanna Konta won
Why it went the way it did
Johanna Konta won 10.1 more points than Varvara Flink relative to what the serve alone predicted. Varvara Flink's biggest leaks: return execution −2.0, serve 1st execution −1.7, backhand execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Varvara Flink | Johanna Konta | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.7 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +1.6 |
| Return | −0.4 | +0.6 | −2.0 | −1.8 | −0.4 | −0.6 | +2.0 | +1.1 |
| Forehand | −0.8 | +1.3 | −1.1 | −0.6 | +0.5 | +0.6 | +1.4 | +2.5 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.7 | −1.7 | −0.4 | +0.5 | −1.4 | −1.3 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.8 | +0.5 | −0.2 | +0.3 | −1.4 | −0.3 | −1.4 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.4 | −1.3 |
| All shots | −1.1 | +0.4 | −7.3 | −8.0 | +0.2 | −1.7 | +3.5 | +2.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Varvara Flink | Johanna Konta | Net, Varvara | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.1 | +1.7 | −4.8 | |
| 2 | −4.9 | +0.4 | −5.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Varvara Flink serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 50% | 15% 60% | 44% 47% |
| 2 | 46% 50% | 23% 50% | 31% 38% |
Set to set +0.57 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Johanna Konta serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 72% 76% | 7% 0% | 21% 50% |
| 2 | 41% 67% | 5% 0% | 55% 75% |
Set to set −3.17 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.30 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Varvara Flink
6.3 points left on the table across 199 shots 3.18 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
Johanna Konta
4.7 points left on the table across 193 shots 2.42 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts