Indian Wells Masters · R64 · Hard · 9 Mar 2019
Leonardo Mayer v Gael Monfils
83–91 in points · Gael Monfils won
Why it went the way it did
Gael Monfils won 5.2 more points than Leonardo Mayer relative to what the serve alone predicted. Leonardo Mayer's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −3.8, serve 2nd execution −2.6, forehand execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Leonardo Mayer | Gael Monfils | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +0.2 | −3.8 | −3.5 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.6 | −2.5 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −1.2 | −1.0 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +2.6 | +2.0 | +0.2 | +0.5 | −3.1 | −2.4 |
| Forehand | −1.3 | +4.3 | −2.1 | +0.9 | −0.9 | +2.1 | +0.8 | +1.9 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.7 | −1.3 | −0.9 | −0.3 | +0.7 | +0.4 | +0.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.4 | −2.5 | −0.1 | −1.9 | +2.2 | +0.1 |
| Net | +0.5 | +0.9 | −1.1 | +0.3 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.5 |
| Touch | −0.3 | −0.6 | −1.1 | −1.9 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.8 | −1.0 |
| All shots | −1.0 | +3.6 | −10.8 | −8.1 | −1.4 | +1.3 | −2.9 | −3.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Leonardo Mayer | Gael Monfils | Net, Leonardo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.3 | +2.4 | −3.6 | |
| 2 | −1.6 | −4.2 | +2.6 | |
| 3 | −5.3 | −1.2 | −4.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Leonardo Mayer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 62% | 9% 50% | 42% 61% |
| 2 | 30% 50% | 11% 67% | 59% 56% |
| 3 | 43% 56% | 5% 100% | 52% 64% |
Set to set −0.18 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.38 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Gael Monfils serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 75% | 7% 50% | 50% 71% |
| 2 | 54% 67% | 14% 0% | 32% 33% |
| 3 | 48% 85% | – | 52% 71% |
Set to set +0.61 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.51 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Leonardo Mayer
10.4 points left on the table across 323 shots 3.23 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
Gael Monfils
9.7 points left on the table across 328 shots 2.96 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts