Guadalajara · R32 · Hard · 12 Mar 2019
Fanny Stollar v Renata Zarazua
44–63 in points · Renata Zarazua won
Why it went the way it did
Renata Zarazua won 10.9 more points than Fanny Stollar relative to what the serve alone predicted. Fanny Stollar's biggest leaks: backhand execution −5.3, forehand execution −4.5, return execution −3.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Fanny Stollar | Renata Zarazua | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.2 | −2.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −1.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.2 | −3.7 | −3.7 | −0.3 | −1.3 | −2.2 | −3.9 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +1.4 | −4.5 | −2.8 | −0.5 | +0.7 | −1.2 | −1.1 |
| Backhand | −0.6 | +0.2 | −5.3 | −5.7 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.5 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −0.5 | −1.3 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.5 | −1.1 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.2 | −0.8 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.5 | +1.2 | −18.9 | −18.2 | −0.7 | −2.2 | −4.3 | −7.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Fanny Stollar | Renata Zarazua | Net, Fanny | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −11.1 | −2.4 | −8.7 | |
| 2 | −7.0 | −4.8 | −2.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Fanny Stollar serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34% 40% | 14% 25% | 52% 53% |
| 2 | 29% 55% | 13% 40% | 58% 59% |
Set to set −0.09 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.30 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Renata Zarazua serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 100% | – | 50% 100% |
| 2 | 48% 62% | 22% 67% | 30% 63% |
Within sets +0.41 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Fanny Stollar
4.4 points left on the table across 144 shots 3.03 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
Renata Zarazua
4.5 points left on the table across 139 shots 3.27 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts